Published: 2025-06-19 13:50:01
1. Copper Price Trends (As of June 19, 2025)
Recent price performance
Futures market: Shanghai copper prices are fluctuating at high levels. For example, on June 16, the price of Shanghai copper was around 78,550 yuan/ton; On June 19, bright copper was quoted at 72,800 yuan/ton, and scrap copper at 69,900 yuan/ton. Copper prices have entered a sideways pattern due to macroeconomic and supply-demand factors. The Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rate brings macro uncertainty, while mine supply remains tight, but domestic consumption is in the off-season. Multiple factors intertwine limiting price fluctuations.
International market: LME (London Metal Exchange) three-month copper prices previously fluctuated between 9,800 and 10,200 USD/ton, influenced by factors such as green economy demand (new energy vehicles, grid infrastructure driving copper consumption), supply bottlenecks (tightening environmental policies in major producing countries like Chile, declining ore grades causing production growth to fall short of expectations), and low inventories (global explicit copper inventories falling below 150,000 tons, the lowest in nearly a decade), overall showing an upward trend but also temporal fluctuations. Attention should be paid to Federal Reserve policies, China's stimulus policies, and supply-side disturbances in South America.
Analysis of influencing factors
Macroeconomics and Policy: Federal Reserve policy is a key variable. Expectations of rate cuts at the beginning of 2025 supported commodity prices. If monetary policy shifts later (such as halting rate hikes or cuts), a weaker dollar will support copper prices; In China, weak real estate is dragging down traditional copper sectors, but investments in "new infrastructure" (5G base stations, charging stations, etc.) partially offset the negative impact; The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is fully implemented in 2025, driving up copper processing costs in Europe and indirectly impacting global pricing.
Supply-demand pattern: On the supply side, although emerging production areas like the DRC have expanded production, insufficient transportation and power infrastructure limit capacity release, and the grades of mature mines have declined (the global average grade of copper ore has dropped by about 40% since the 1990s), making medium- and long-term supply expansion difficult; On the demand side, copper consumption for electric vehicles has grown significantly (80kg per vehicle, up 25% year-on-year), becoming the largest source of increment. Meanwhile, emerging markets like India and energy infrastructure investments in Europe and the US are also driving demand.
Geopolitics and Energy: Chile's mining tax reform (new legislation requiring mining companies to pay higher royalties) increases long-term cost pressures; On energy prices, natural gas prices have fallen to reduce smelting costs, but localized power shortages in South America continue to limit smelter operating rates.
Future trend forecasting
Short-term (2025): Due to macro uncertainties (Fed policy, global economic recovery pace, etc.) and the domestic consumption off-season, copper prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels with temporary fluctuations. Inventory support is present below, while weakening demand resilience and macroeconomic pressure limit upside upside. Some institutions expect prices to range between 77,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton (SHFE copper) and 9,500 to 10,500 USD/ton (LME copper).
Medium to long term (2025 - 2029): With the global economic recovery and continuous stimulation from the new energy industry, copper demand is expected to accelerate. However, issues such as long mine project cycles and declining ore grades make it difficult for supply growth to keep up with demand. The market may gradually shift from the current relative looseness to a tighter situation. Some studies predict that from 2026 onwards, refined copper may face shortages, giving copper prices upward potential. Nevertheless, risks such as a hard landing of the US economy leading to a recession and technological breakthroughs allowing aluminum to replace copper may suppress prices.